In Luxembourg, Statec’s central scenario envisages a 30% rise in gas prices in 2027, according to estimates reported by L’essentiel. Two other scenarios frame this projection. Their value lies in showing several possible paths, linked in particular to supply conditions; households also need to consider public support and the quantities they consume.
For its part, the government signed an amendment on 29 October extending a compensation payment of 15 cents per cubic metre of gas, including all taxes, into 2027. The two pieces of information concern different aspects: the scenarios relate to price changes, while the compensation is support calculated per unit consumed. Their coexistence therefore does not determine in advance the final amount paid by each household.
Three possible paths for gas prices
The three scenarios reported by L’essentiel are as follows:
| Statec scenario | Projected change in gas prices in 2027 |
|---|---|
| Low | +4% |
| Central | +30% |
| High | +38% |
The 38% figure belongs to the high scenario. The central scenario provides a reference point, without guaranteeing that this change will occur.
An individual bill also depends on household consumption and the terms of the applicable tariff. A household that consumes more or less gas will not necessarily see its spending change in line with a price indicator. These projections indicate a possible direction, but are not a monthly quote for each household.
Statec developed its scenarios taking suppliers’ procurement strategies into account. Separately, developments in gas markets, the level of stocks in Europe and weather conditions could affect prices in 2027.
Why electricity follows a different pattern
The outlook for electricity is less pronounced in the reported scenarios. Statec forecasts a fall of between 2% and 5% in the low and central scenarios, and a rise of 3% in the high scenario. The two decreases are presented together, without a detailed breakdown matching each figure to each of the two scenarios.
Minister Delles explains the difference between the two energy sources by suppliers’ purchasing schedules, according to L’essentiel. A significant proportion of the electricity to be supplied in 2027 has already been bought forward in previous years. Gas purchases are more concentrated in shorter-term periods. Gas prices are therefore more exposed to recent market developments, while some of the cost of electricity was fixed earlier.
This difference in timing helps explain why two energy sources consumed by households can follow opposite paths. It does not mean that electricity prices are entirely fixed: purchases already made account for only part of the supply, and the scenarios remain estimates.
Support of 15 cents per cubic metre
The amendment to the tripartite agreement, signed in Senningen on 29 October 2026, provides for the continuation of financial compensation for gas under the same terms, from 1 January to 31 December 2027. The amount is 15 cents per cubic metre, including all taxes. The text also provides for an extension to users of liquefied petroleum gas, without detailing here how it applies to each delivery method.
The unit matters: this is 15 cents per cubic metre, not a 15% reduction or 15 cents per kilowatt-hour. This unit amount cannot be subtracted directly from the percentages announced by Statec. To establish the effect on a household, it would be necessary to take account, among other things, of the applicable tariff, consumption and the specific terms of the compensation.
A simple calculation helps put the amount into perspective: 1 000 cubic metres receiving compensation of 0.15 euro per cubic metre would amount to 150 euros. This volume is an assumption for the calculation, not the average consumption of a household or an estimate of its bill. It illustrates the compensation alone; it cannot be used to recalculate Statec’s scenarios, whose detailed assumptions are not reproduced here.
The continuation of the support may therefore cushion the cost borne by households without necessarily cancelling out a change in prices. A rise in the price before compensation and continued public support can occur at the same time. The agreement extends a mechanism; it does not freeze the entire bill or guarantee the same final amount for everyone.
What households can compare
For consumers, the projections provide a reference point for the scenarios being considered, but not a quote for 2027. Available offers, actual consumption and contract terms remain decisive. The Luxembourg Regulatory Institute (ILR) describes Calculix as an impartial comparison tool for natural gas and electricity. It can help consumers review the offers available at the time of comparison; offers should be considered alongside their periods and terms of application.
The information to keep an eye on is practical: the period covered by an offer, the price actually quoted and how the compensation appears in the calculation. The scenarios shed light on the risk of price changes; the offer and consumption bring the focus back to the household’s situation.
References
- L’essentiel: gas and electricity price scenarios
- Amendment to the tripartite agreement of 29 October 2026
- ILR: gas and hydrogen, consumer information
A gas meter supplying two boilers, photographed in 2009. Illustrative photo.
