In the United States, 49% of adults surveyed favour the death penalty for people convicted of murder, compared with 45% who oppose it. This is the first time since 1971 that Gallup has recorded support below 50%. The figure marks a threshold in a long-term trend, but it does not mean that American public opinion has shifted to a majority against capital punishment.
A symbolic threshold, not a majority opposed
The Gallup poll, conducted from 1 to 19 October among 1,200 adults, puts support at 49%. The proportion of opponents is 45%; the remaining responses fall into neither of these two positions. The total, therefore, cannot be reduced to a face-off between two camps.
The distinction between “less than half” and “a majority opposed” is essential. At 49%, the proportion of people in favour remains slightly higher than that of opponents in the survey results, and the poll no longer gives them an absolute majority. Gallup notes that the result is statistically close to the 52% recorded the previous year. The stated margin of error is plus or minus four points: falling below the 50% mark is a notable milestone, but the two annual measurements alone do not establish a definite break.
The historical series gives the figure greater significance. Gallup began asking Americans about the issue in 1936. Support stood at 59% then, reached 80% in 1994, and subsequently declined. In 1966, it had fallen to 42%, its lowest level in the series. The current result is therefore not a record for opposition: rather, it marks a return to below 50% after several decades in which a majority of adults said they were in favour.
Marked differences by age and political affiliation
The national average masks clear differences between groups. According to Gallup, 73% of Republicans surveyed support the death penalty, compared with 50% of independents and 28% of Democrats. The gap between Republicans and Democrats is therefore 45 points. This is considerably greater than the average gap measured between 1990 and 2015, which was 25 points.
This divide is not limited to opposition between parties. Gallup finds that adults aged 50 and over remain predominantly in favour of capital punishment, while fewer than half of younger people support it. Among those under 30, the proportion is 39%. The poll also notes that, within each political group, younger adults are less supportive than older ones.
These data describe responses at a particular point in time; on their own, they do not say why each person answered as they did. They nevertheless show that the national decline is taking place alongside generational and partisan differences already visible in the results. The trend is particularly marked among Democrats: their support has fallen by 28 points since 2000, according to Gallup’s historical comparison. Among Republicans, it remains much higher, although 73% is among the lowest levels the institute has recorded for this group.
An opinion measured amid political and legal debate
The result comes in a country where capital punishment remains a matter of law and public policy, not just opinion. Rules and practices vary by state. The history of the Gallup series also shows that periods of lower support have sometimes coincided with legal changes: between 1965 and 1971, challenges to state laws led to the Supreme Court’s 1972 decision, which ruled unconstitutional, as they were then written, the laws of every state authorising the death penalty. The states subsequently rewrote their laws, and executions resumed in 1977.
This sequence does not allow us to conclude that a current shift in public opinion will necessarily lead to a change in the law. Rather, it shows that the two dimensions move at their own pace: opinion can change without immediately altering laws, while a court ruling can transform the legal framework without individual preferences disappearing.
Gallup says its October survey began the day after a failed execution attempt in Tennessee. The timing establishes proximity, not a cause-and-effect link: the poll does not show that this event explains the national result. To interpret the figure, it is therefore better to keep its three key points in view: support now below 50%, opposition that does not constitute an absolute majority, and persistent differences by age and party.
References
- Gallup, “U.S. Death Penalty Support Drops Below Majority Level”
- RTL Today, “Support for death penalty in US at lowest level in 55 years: poll”
The United States Supreme Court in Washington. Illustrative photo.
